The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, the analyst said that while a recession is not probable, a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment where risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies suffer. Puckrin said:
“Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot.”
The analyst added that US President Donald Trump is not actively attempting to engineer a recession, but that the things the Trump administration is doing, including cutting federal jobs and spending to balance the budget can lead to recessions as a side effect.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is the primary cause of the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to better opportunities in European capital markets and seek an escape from the economic uncertainty currently plaguing US markets, Puckrin told Cointelegraph.
The DXY, which tracks the strength of the US dollar, took a nosedive in March 2025. Source: TradingView
Related: Timeline: How Trump tariffs dragged Bitcoin below $80K
Trade war fears drag the price of Bitcoin down
President Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners sent a shockwave through the crypto markets, leading to a steep decline in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price from the Jan. 20 high of over $109,000.
The tariffs and fears of a prolonged trade war also reoriented market sentiment toward extreme fear — a sharp contrast from the euphoric highs felt after the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in November 2025 and the January 20 inauguration.
The price of Bitcoin has been struggling amid the trade war headlines and is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Source: TradingView
According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will feel the pressure of tariffs until April 2025.
If countries can successfully negotiate an end to the tariffs or the Trump administration softens its stance then markets will recover, the analyst added.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently said that BTC formed a price bottom in March 2025, as US President Donald Trump softened the rhetoric around trade tariffs — signaling a potential price reversal.
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