The next XRP price move has nothing to do with anything happening inside crypto. Oil is the story. WTI crude sat at $95.65 at the time of writing — up more than 40% since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28 — and traders are watching the XRP oil price relationship more closely than they have in years. An XRP price move to the upside needs loose monetary conditions, strong liquidity, and risk appetite. If crude pushes toward $200, all three disappear. XRP price movement anticipation is running high right now, and so is the uncertainty. Will XRP go up from here? That answer sits almost entirely on whether one waterway reopens.

Also Read: XRP Repricing Won’t Happen When Investors Expect, Analyst Says

How XRP Oil Price And Iran War Risks Drive Price Movement Anticipation

The Oil Shock Is Already Historic

Brent crude briefly hit $119 a barrel earlier this week — the first time it crossed $100 since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. More than 20% of the world’s daily energy supply normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and that traffic has now collapsed to what the IEA called “a trickle.” Iran’s new supreme leader also called for the strait to shut entirely, and markets started pricing a prolonged disruption.

Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets, stated:

“This absolutely dwarfs what we saw in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.”

Homayoun Falakshahi, lead crude research analyst at Kpler, warned:

“Oil could rise to $150 a barrel by the end of March if travel through the strait doesn’t start flowing again.”

Sasha Foss, energy market analyst at Marex, told CNBC:

“This conflict needs to end by the end of the week. Otherwise, we’ll see oil prices spike back up over $100.”

The IEA coordinated a 400-million-barrel reserve release — the largest in history — and it didn’t work. Crude crossed $100 again anyway. Oil prices and the Iran war now represent a prolonged supply crisis, not a one-week shock.

What $200 Oil Does To The XRP Price Move Traders Are Waiting For

The XRP oil price connection runs through liquidity. When oil climbs this fast, inflation follows, central banks push rate cuts further out, and the monetary looseness that powers every major XRP price move drains away. That is exactly what suppresses XRP price movement anticipation right now — not anything specific to Ripple or the XRP ledger.

Sebastián Serrano, CEO of Argentine crypto exchange Ripio, explained:

“When energy becomes more expensive, inflation rises, and central banks postpone rate cuts, which ultimately restricts the liquidity that Bitcoin needs to gain momentum.”

Bitcoin also felt this — it held around $70,434 at the time of writing, but analysts don’t expect that to last if crude keeps climbing. The Iran war oil shock triggered a brief selloff after the February 28 strikes, and the recovery still looks fragile.

Laurens Fraussen, research analyst at crypto data firm Kaiko, stated:

“Bitcoin is a risk asset, not a commodity as of now,” adding that the asset has been “very sensitive to geopolitical shocks the past year.”

XRP faces the same dynamic. Will XRP go up? Probably — but the XRP price move bulls are counting on needs rate cuts to come back first, and any clean XRP price move higher also requires oil to stop climbing.

Michaël van de Poppe had this to say:

“Just because upside volatility has been slim, it doesn’t mean the downside needs to be heavier. In that regard, we’re likely to enter a bull market cycle for 2026, 2027, and 2028.”

I’m not worried at all.

We’ve seen a weak bull cycle, or an upwards move within a larger bull cycle on #Bitcoin.

I don’t think that the markets are going to hit an 80% correction on #Bitcoin.

Just because upside volatility has been slim, it doesn’t mean the downside needs to…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 11, 2026

The Ceiling On XRP Will Lift When Oil Does

That longer-term XRP price move outlook is something traders hold onto right now. The XRP oil price story goes beyond short-term swings — a prolonged supply crisis reshapes the entire monetary environment that crypto runs on. Oil prices and the Iran war have put a ceiling on XRP price move potential for now, and the next real move higher waits on the other side of it.